Jerzy Neyman, Sigmund Freud, and Milton Friedman walk into a bar

also Stanislaw Ulam, Monty Hall, and the field of ecology

Recently on the blog:

• Ecologists’ endless quest for automatic inference

• Jerzy Neyman, Sigmund Freud, and Milton Friedman walk into a bar . . . (the mistaken association of null hypothesis testing with rigor)

• Taking our Models Seriously (my talk at StanBio Connect, this Friday 9am)

• xkcd on radon

• “Exploratory data analysis” and “confirmatory data analysis” are the same thing.

• Prior as data, prior as belief, prior as soft constraint, prior as unconditional distribution in a generative model

• Which AI coding assistant should I be using?

• An alternative Monty Hall problem. As with the usual Monty Hall problem, just set it up as a probability tree and it all works out

• Struggles with surveying nonvoters and young voters

• Using Stan to do sequential Bayesian updating

• Chaining Bayesian inference with priors constructed from posterior draws